Bitcoin has surpassed $40,000 and no one predicted it would rise so quickly. Trading volumes are recovering and, more importantly, capital flows into altcoins are accelerating. According to current estimates, the next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in April 2024. Most Bitcoin investors are very excited about the Bitcoin halving, which occurs approximately every four years. When the Bitcoin halving occurs, the Bitcoin block reward is cut in half. Block rewards will be earned by miners who add the next block to the Bitcoin blockchain, which is the only way new BTC coins are created. Each halving reduces the amount of new BTC in circulation, which is seen as a positive by existing BTC holders. This is because the halving reduces Bitcoin inflation and reduces potential selling pressure on Bitcoin miners. The 2024 Bitcoin halving will reduce block rewards from the current 6.25 Bitcoins per block to 3.125 Bitcoins per block.
Let’s review the history of BTC after halving
Bitcoin has experienced three halvings so far, and the price of each halving was significantly higher than the previous one. With the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024, Bitcoin holders will surely hope that this trend continues. The background for Bitcoin's halving to become a bull market comes from the increase in scarcity, so it is believed by the market to help push up currency prices. It is worth mentioning that in the past, after halving, Bitcoin usually did not immediately trigger an upward effect, and it took several months to a year and a half to ferment. According to the statistics:
The first halving: In 2012, about 12 months after the peak (November 2013), the currency price increased by 8450%. Before the halving, from December 2010 to November 2012, there were only a few scattered articles. The article criticizes Bitcoin’s viability. In the months leading up to the halving (September-October 2012), there were no critical articles. The price is relatively stable around $10-15. If anyone had the foresight to invest $100 in Bitcoin on November 28, 2012 (the date of the first halving). Then as of September 14, 2023, this investment would be worth a staggering $1,629,387, while Bitcoin’s price is $26,293.87. In other words, a simple $100 investment would result in over $1.6 million in profits in just over 10 years.
Second Halving: In 2016, about 17 months after the peak (December 2017), the price of the coin increased by 290%. The second halving reduced the block reward by another 50% – from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. If you were still working on Bitcoin in 2012, I believe your memory is still fresh. Everyone is looking forward to another bull market brought about by the halving. Many predict prices will rise. Bitcoin experienced an incredible bull run in 2017, with its price rising to nearly $20,000 by the end of the year, marking the first time the cryptocurrency was in the global spotlight. This set the stage for an even larger bull run four years later… If you invested $100 in Bitcoin on July 9, 2016 (the day of the second halving), your investment would now be worth approximately $4,000 . The price of Bitcoin that day was $640.56. At today’s price of $26,293, the 0.1555 BTC that $100 could have purchased at the time would now be worth approximately $4,092 – a return of over 40x the initial investment.
The third halving: In 2019, about 18 months after the peak (November 2021), the coin price increased by 560%. With the third halving, mining rewards are halved again. So predictable, yet so groundbreaking. Bitcoin is gearing up for another bull run as mining rewards are slashed to 6.25 BTC per block. Come 2021, as BTC approaches $60,000, critical articles have proliferated again. However, the number and frequency of these bearish forecasts began to decline in the second half of 2021. This could be a sign that cryptocurrencies are finally out of the “fad” phase in the eyes of mainstream finance. Historically, bull markets always come after halving. It’s also halved, but many things have become different. How many halving cycles can we seize? Perhaps, this is really the last chance to get rich. It is widely believed that Bitcoin generates a bull run every 4 years, known as the halving event. But that's not entirely true. It does not depend on 4 years, but more precisely on block time.
Historically, halving events always produce bull runs in the following months. This is because of the simple law of supply and demand - the scarcer an asset is, the more valuable it becomes as demand increases. Therefore, the positive correlation between price and halving is related to demand - since the block reward will be halved, even the same number of buyers will help increase the price. The maximum supply of Bitcoin is 21 million, Of these, 19.22 million have been mined. When all 21 million Bitcoins are mined, Bitcoin miners will no longer receive any block rewards, but will only receive transaction fees paid by users.
By the time of the next Bitcoin halving in 2024, 93.7% of the total Bitcoin supply will be mined. After the 2024 halving, BTC is expected to halve 28 more times, with the last halving expected in 2130. The reason for this is that the number of blocks is smaller and the calculations used to generate these blocks are more precise. As of October 2023, the next BTC halving is expected to occur in late April 2024, but it’s worth noting that this could happen anytime between March and May 2024; it’s just that these dates are less likely. Low. Each halving cycle introduces unique trading patterns, and there’s every reason to expect we’ll see the same in the next halving. While we can't predict how Bitcoin's price will behave after the 2024 halving, we think it could be very volatile, just like previous halving cycles.
Historically, every Bitcoin halving has been accompanied by a significant increase in price. Although predicting the exact price is challenging due to various external factors, many analysts believe that the scarcity caused by the halving could drive Bitcoin's price upward. By the time the last halving is expected to occur in 2140, Bitcoin may have reached an unprecedented value, potentially cementing its status as a global reserve asset. Coinpedia’s Bitcoin price prediction analysis suggests that by 2030, the price of Bitcoin could range from $277,751 to $347,783. Bitcoin’s next major milestone is its fourth halving. This event will reduce miners’ block rewards to 3.125 BTC per new block. Historical trends suggest that Bitcoin’s price could reach new highs after the halving, potentially reaching $74,967.
Of course, these prices can only be used as a reference, but we can calculate a rational price from the bull market after the previous three halvings.